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20121128
20121206
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CNBC 74
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CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 4:00pm EST
place to be once they settle this thing. the third and the most important thing is the u.s. economy is the most vibrant, adaptable, innovative and creative economy on the planet. i think that means we're coming out and starting to see that in many sectors today. we're bullish and think you need to look at this on a positive frame. >> maria, i'm less bullish than that. that sounds very optimistic. i would love to believe that, but if you compare valuations of equities versus bonds, yes, there's a huge spread right now, but that doesn't necessarily make equities really cheap. it's just a relative trade. i think, also, yes, we're a vibrant economy. we certainly are a strong economy. i think it's really unsustainable, the level of debt that we have in this country. we have $1 trillion in debt. i heard an incredibly succinct way of describing this. rick santelli actually said it this morning about how you can't say you're cutting $800 billion when really $80 billion is really from wars that are just going away. that's not really a cut. that's taking away the addition. i think you need to
CNBC
Dec 2, 2012 7:30pm EST
street. in washington, posturing politics and high-stakes poker with america's economy at stake. president obama's initial offer on the fiscal cliff was resoundingly rejected by republicans. it included a $1.6 trillion tax increase, double what he campaigned on. also included $400 billion in entitlement cuts eliminating the need for congressional approval to a raise the debt ceiling. the markets rebounded later in the week following the latest hopes on a fiscal cliff agreement. america's economy grew at a faster pace than initially expected in the third quarter of the year. the second reading of the gross domestic product showed it at rate of 2.7% spurred by stronger inventories and exports. the securities and exchange commission is looking for a new chairman. mary shapirp schapiro announcin she will step down after nearly four years on the job. the obama administration says it will announce a replacement in the near future. >>> starbucks has a new way to spend a lot of money. it is introducing the most expensive blend made from a rare costa rican variety named geisha. it is $7
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 4:00pm EST
because the underlying fundamentals in the u.s. economy are clearly improving, and you also have a stabilization or soft landing happening in china at the same time. >> david kelly, what do you want to be doing here? what's your strategy for the fiscal cliff? do you think we go over it, and what do you want to do? >> for a long-term investor, you don't try and play this one. i agree with stephanie about the market probably going higher once they get a resolution. they will get a resolution. it's possible it could go into early january. i still think they're more likely to get a resolution done before the end of the year. either way, they'll get a resolution done. when that happens, then we'll resort to looking at the u.s. economy, which is strengthening a bit here. also, the extreme and relative valuations between high-quality fixed income and equities will push money towards equities. i would not run for cover here because of the volatility. i think you just have to, you know, hold your ground through this and hope that the market moves higher next year. >> bob, this activity at
CNBC
Nov 28, 2012 1:00pm EST
to disincentivize the economy and being too restrictive and cut off growth. it would be easy if there was a right and wrong. everything is right here so it is a matter of judgment, what proportion you come back in these things. but i think both sides have to be touched in this, entitlements have to be touched and revenue has to be touched. >> that's the message lloyd blankfein is delivering right now to members of congress on the hill and what he'll say to the president later on today. >>> as eamon mentioned, the president will not only meet with mr. blankfein but a number of other ceos at the white house later today to sell that fiscal cliff plan to them. president earlier today out speaking about it. our chief washington correspondent john harwood is live at the white house with some details on that. hi, john. >> reporter: hi, sue. i echo eamon. i think wall street ought to pay a little bit less attention to the statements that are coming out every day because we've got a long way to go on this roller coaster ride. we've got a live picture of jay carney briefing at the white house right now. th
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 7:00pm EST
be done without destroying the economy, but you are right. they have to do some serious spending cutting. hell, 20% of gdp is too high. 1% is where we ought to be. i got to get out of here. the producers are in my ears. many thanks to you all. we appreciate it very much. >>> now the next question is, will reducing the tax detux for charitable giving really hurt america's charities? you may be surprised about what i'm going to say about this, and the facts back me up. get ready for a debate, because free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity. people don't make charities just because of tax considerations. i'm larry kudlow. they have a heart, and that heart is what driving them to be beneficial. [ male announcer ] if you suffer from heartburn 2 or more days a week, why use temporary treatments when you can prevent the acid that's causing it with prevacid24hr. with one pill prevacid24hr works at the source to prevent the acid that causes frequent heartburn all day and all night. and with new prevacid24hr perks, you can earn rewards from dinner deals to music downloads for purchas
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 12:00pm EST
things off kilter. i think the economy improves next year. we think emerging economies improve as well so global growth but the real catalyst is going to be the grand bargain where they come down to the agreement and people have confidence that we're going to be back on the track to a better health physically in thfi fiscally. >> your expectation is sort of a band-aid now, maybe a sizable band-aid. >> right. >> and then handle it all, reform the tax code and so forth, at some point next year maybe by the middle of next year. >> middle to latter part of next year. you just can't get all the hard work done between now and the end of the year but we think you can get enough of an agreement to hit the pause button and get down to the hard work. >> you have an aggressive target for year's end next year at least where we currently sit. >> right. >> 1600 on the s&p. so a 10% to 15% move in stocks. >> right. >> are you less concerned than most people seem to be about earnings and earnings slowing down into next year? >> we feel pretty good about earnings. we are looking at $102 per share for the
CNBC
Nov 28, 2012 4:00am EST
's really thinking that we're going to get this full 3.5%, 4% gdp hit smack into the economy on january 1st. the problem is that time is marching on. we've had the election, we've had thanksgiving. the excuses are running out. the lame-duck session is only so long. that's probably why the markets are getting nervous. although you may get a deal done in q-1 rather than in q-4, the fact that it actually hits from january 1st is going to keep business very cautious, very defensive and that's going to worry the equity market. >> it's interesting because it also comes against the landscape where we've seen chinese equities underperform, they reminded us very few of its member countries have great growth prospects going forward. that's probably wise. people are saying why is it that across the globe the u.s. fiscal cliff is such an issue. well, it's because sources of growth at this point are few and far between. >> that is the problem. where is growth going to come from. the one place that looked set for a reasonable 2013 was the u.s. economy. europe flat, china slower probably than this year. b
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 4:00am EST
that marie solving insolvent firms easier. crucial agreement for restructuring the economy in this transition period as resources must shift from unproductive to productive activities. it is the latter that create jobs. this reallocation process, though sometimes painful in the short run, i'll say always painful in the short run, carries the seed of future prosperity. a growing body of knowledge shows that by increasing the ability of the economy to adjust so that factors can be reallocated to the most competitive firms, aggregate labor productivity can increase substantially. some studies indicate a gain of as much as 20 force 30%. the current focus on competitiveness in france leading towards an institutional and fiscal set up that can support firms investment in innovation is therefore a welcome step in the right direction. another important aspect is the growth and competitiveness enhancing potential of further market integration in europe. one example is a very recent study which finds that applying the eu patent would raise the gains for european firms from patent and inventions by 60%.
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 6:00am EST
think the ramifications for the economy are too significant. i think we're watching whatever you want to call it, all of the politics playing out, but i still think in the end we'll get a last minute deal. >> i agree. and i think even though the sides are far apart, you have things on the table now. so you can say you're here at 800, 1.6, you kind of -- it gets you somewhere close. somebody will try to say 1.3 versus 1.1, but if you see publicly what they're stating and hopefully privately other things are going on, but it will get done, but it will be very slow. >> john boehner with the proposal he put on the table, i did see commentary from some of the far right saying this is not an acceptable proposal. even his proposal is not acceptable. i did see comment it ter that came through. my question is does the president now have to alienate some of his far left base in order to reach a compromise. >> i think you'll see both of them have to actually bring the parties together. because you won't get everybody happy. some of the people who got voted on the ticket side, no, never. but it w
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 4:00am EST
it to some of the other developed economies, you can see how well australia is holding up. we've seen growth of just 2.5% in the u.s., 1.5% in canada and zero growth in the uk. locally, cutbacks in government spending weighed on the numbers and lower commodity prices also impacted on cash flow and the government is facing more criticism about its effort to keep the budget in surplus while the economy grows. >> the government has had the objective of making sure that we would bring our budget back to surplus when growth has been around trend. what we've been seeking to do through good budget policy has been to provide maximum flexibility to the reserve bank to a just rate so. the government will always put in place appropriate budget settings which will support growth and jobs. >> still, analysts say growth could slow further as the mining investment boom peaks. yesterday, the bank of australia cut interest rates to a record low of 3% and traders are looking further easing next year to offset the falling talks of trade, the high australian daughter and further cutbacks in government spending.
CNBC
Nov 27, 2012 7:00pm EST
of all, interest rates are low because we have had a weak economy. as far as the debt goes, listen to dean, i'm sure that he believes that the only real problem phafacing the country a the capitol gains. i think we do have a debt problem i think we have a big debt problem. the numbers in the 20s, 30s, look horrifying and we have a huge job and growth problem. i don't understand how taking dividends from 15-43 creates jobs that closes that. >> i don't see spending cuts. it won't matter. the economy collapsed and the housing bubble collapsed. make them pay zero taxes. the search goes inside out. none of it finds that it will create any of those jobs. the government has no choice. >> that is quite an experiment. that you are willing to run with 1 or 2%. from 15 to 25. we are going to taking it from 15 to 30. >> we have been there. >> you are taking the rate on capital which we have the world's highest rate on capital. and you are poi inggoing to mak higher? i would love to see spending reductions. the house and the senate rotes for $1.2 trillion spending cut. that spending cut would b
CNBC
Nov 28, 2012 7:00pm EST
there will also be a drag on the american economy if our budget deficit widens out forever, if we're irresponsible and governor doesn't work. left with those four choices, think think -- on the flip side, did republicans ask you to spend any nuts -- i think at this point both sides have acknowledged that there's going to be revenue concessions and entertainment concessions. in fact, if you listen to, it again, i'm not a master of the political art here, i'm in washington but i would say if you had these points of views in a business context, as close as they are, i would say a deal would be in reach. >> you see some fundamental level of optimism from lloyd blankfine but a long way to go with the combination of prief pressure and public pressure, like the president is going to exert before we actually go to the flight of fired. i asked the treasury secretary should the president return to wall street. he it must be someone who understands markets, marry. >> me have 33 days to -- head of all pi he told john harwood. marge i will hates have to go up somewhat. he said that's going to put a drag on the
CNBC
Nov 28, 2012 3:00pm EST
to the financial system. >> steve, if only the market could focus on just the economy, which actually seems to be chugging along okay. if you look at durables, consumer confidence, the ongoing recovery and housing, it's the overhang of the cliff that's spooking everybody. >> yeah, we've had somewhat better numbers. the new home sales today, not great. maybe sandy affected even though the government said it wasn't. the economy's okay. it may be more of a 2% plus economy in the fourth quarter than is being given credit on the street. it's not gang busters. the question has been for a long time -- by the way, there's some headlines from the beige book. you can see it really did affect the northeast, new york, and new jersey especially. so we'll see some of that in the data in the months ahead. we'll be seeing some rebuilding going on. you know, i would not make a call here on the economy, scott, to say go ahead and invest in the economy. after the fiscal cliff everything is fine. i think there's a reason for cautious optimism, but i don't think there's a reason to think it's going to go gang b
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 4:00pm EST
strategy? what do you want to do with your money in the economy does go off the fiscal cliff? >> yeah, we were worried about that back in september, october. so even though we like the equity markets going into 2013, we wanted to hedge ourselves a little bit, so we took money out of equities. didn't just put it into cash. we put it into three areas we think are still good long term. one is we talk about emerging market equities, but i like emerging market debt. these monetary authorities are done tightening. they fought the inflationary problem that they had successfully. they're in hoed. yield curves could shift down. we stress doing it in local currency. the other areas are u.s. high yield, which i still think is valuable. we do think spreads will contract and emerging market equities as well. >> jordan, what about you? how are you preparing for what could be an eventuality where we go over the cliff and we've got to deal with higher taxes and a slower economy? a lot of people expecting recession in 2013, if, in fact, this occurs. >> think about what works well in a slow-growth economy.
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 7:00pm EST
the economy go into a recession. i do not believe he'll do that. i'm call his bluff. he will have to make a deal with republicans because, yes, they will blame the republicans for the recession. i know that's what you're going to say. you know what there will be truth but it's obama who gets blamed for having another recession in his second term. it will be herbert hoover obama. he has ta deal. steve, i'm calling your bluff on this whole thing. >> i'm for him for making a deal and i think he will. the republicans could pass a bill tomorrow to extend the bush tax cuts for everybody making less than 250 and then we could have a discussion about the people making over 250 from now to the end of the year but we could ensure people making under 250 don't see their paychecks, $2,000 taken out of it on january 15th and january 30th. >> why should they do that? >> why can't they protect the middle class. the president says look i have them in my budget. i went through his budget. 258 proposals on taxes or spending. 15 on medicare. total of 150 billion in cuts. we spend $7 trillion in the next ten
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 7:00pm EST
of our fragile economy hangs in the fiscal cliff balance, for that let's turn to our distinguished guests. peter goodman. he's the huffington post business editor on a former "new york times"man. we welcome back republican congresswoman nan hayworth and haddy heath, senior policy analyst with the independent women's forum. okay. so mcconnell laughed at the tim geithner proposal. and john boehner says we're at a stalemate. and president obama himself is kind of getting ugly about this enemy's list. we've seen this before from him. my proposal is, republicans have to come with a counter offer. right now. there's no point in blasting obama. just a counter offer. i want to read from today's newspaper. this is what mitch mcconnell said. "higher medicare premiums for the wealthy, an increase in the medicare eligibility age, and a slowing of costs of living increases for programs like social security. and then republicans would agree to include more tax revenue in the deal but not from higher tax rates." now, let's just look at this for a second. we'll go to you first, nan. he wants medicare eli
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 7:00pm EST
, these guys don't think that the economy is going to suffer that much. they think they will take credit. that is how they think. talk about social engineering. what happened to the jack kemp argument. what about empowerment. john f kennedy had the same thing. i don't want to bring some down and some up. i want to bring everybody up. where is that argument? >> and jack kennedy said, if you want to raise tax revenues, you must cut tax rates. the opposite of what obama said. they don't believe it. they want a western european style cradle to grave state. they want to make sure that they preserve it and they want to pay for it. the middle class is going to be nailed and they are going to blame republicans and they are going to have to go back to get more money. isn't it mostly true, taxing the rich, and you poll the whole electric. the middle income people believe they are going to be next. middle income say you are not going to get enough money there. they are going to hit me and there is going to be a carbon tax. president obama needs to expand the government. i wish the majority of the m
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 9:00am EST
savings as part of that and invest in things that matter to the american economy. we think we can do that. we have a good chance to do it now. it's important that we do it. i think we're going to get there. >> given tough talk over the weekend, why aren't we waking up to down numbers, red arrows? >> europe is terrific. bond rates are phenomenal. a great run. china numbers are better. i think that there's a lot of people who feel like doug cast does who writes with me with a piece in "the new york times" saying that -- >> most stuff is nontaxable accounts any way. most stocks that people won't be as motivated to sell as people think. of course that doesn't necessarily deal with the increase in payroll taxes and the whole recession side of it. it does deal with the stock market side in terms of selling. >> why not say, listen, fiscal cliff, i have to cut numbers. i have to cut guidance. i think many ceos will cut guidance because of the possibility that the amt is going to -- this alternative minimum tax, people don't know they have to write a check for $3,500 at the end of the year. once y
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 9:00am EST
two acquisitions. plains exploration and mcmoran exploration. >>> concerns over the u.s. economy as adp misses estimates. the blame goes to superstorm sandy. goldman says the party is officially over for gold. >> starbucks at an investors conference will add 1,500 stores in the u.s. over the next five years. wait until you hear what they said about china. >> a big day in media. pandora ceo joins us live later this morning as the stock fell nearly 20% on weak guidance and netflix signs a big exclusive with disney. how much are they having to pay up for that? >>> let's deal with this big deal. as i've been telling you we'll see a lot of big deals -- i was wrong. here we are. freeport mcmoran buying not one but two companies. the combined price if you add it all together gets close to $20 billion. that does include debt. let's go through some of the details. it's somewhat complex. let's start with bigger of the two deals. freeport's purchase of plains. approximately $6.9 billion in total now. it's a cash and stock deal. .6531 shares and 39 bucks a share in cash. that adds up to $50
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 3:00pm EST
on the very, very decent and accelerating fundamentals of the u.s. economy. >> maybe, and that's just today, right, ron? >> been since last week. >> we were talking about the market really being so sensitive to any rhetoric out of washington. >> i'm not saying it's not hostage to headlines. we'll get intraday volatility. from the monday before thank giving until now, we have effectively wiped out the losses we saw post-election. >> rick, how do you see it? market complacency, too much angst, are we overthinking this? how do you read the market right now? >> i think that the low volume movements of the equity markets aren't really telling you any information. there's no way even in aggregate a market could decide what's going on in harry reid or john boehner's brain in anything is going on in begin with. if you look at treasuries overlaid on top of equities, until mr. boehner's comments, the treasuries have taken the big picture on all of this. they're not going anywhere fast. fiscal cliff is important, but there's a lot of issues for the next several years that are going to be important to
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 7:00pm EST
on the obama administration if the economy doesn't recover. >> all right. many thanks, scott rasmussen, appreciate it very much. >> thanks. >>> with just 26 days until we fall off the tax and fiscal cliff, two dozen house republicans have apparently defected from the boehner plan and signed a bipartisan letter with democrats. people are now asking is there a fallback position for the gop? well, here now to tell us is house majority whip california republican kevin mccarthy, the number three man. mr. mccarthy, as always, thank you for coming back on the show. can i get your comment on this letter, two dozen republicans, they're talking about tax rate flexibility along with a bunch of democrats. what's your take, sir? >> well, remember what they're saying here. what they're saying is that they're going to put everything on to the table. what we've been talking about for so long is where the president has been awol, this is a spending issue that we have a real problem with. we agree that we'll provide revenue, but we do not want to hurt a pro growth economy here. so it's how you go about
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 4:00am EST
. so if you look at the other trends for the economy, it's still the same of steady slow appreciation and that there really i don't believe is any effect from the supposed anxiety about the fiscal cliff. i think people know there will be some type of resolution. we didn't know the details or when. but companies are still investing the way they would normally do and they're not stopping because of -- >> that doesn't make us quake a bit about the jobs report later this will week and what that does for investors' nerves? >> we know it will be worse than it would have been because of super storm sandy. so you didn't know how much it was to do with that and how much was the economy. so it will be a bit of a wash in terms of reading the tea leaves for the u.s. >> so the growth picture for the u.s., we sort of 1%, 2%, depending on what happens with the fiscal cliff. what do you think, 2.5%? >> yeah, i think we should be 2.5% to 3% by the end of next year. >> which might be a slightly better outturn. china seems to be back on track. is there anything in europe -- what's the tail risk at the m
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 6:00am EST
the economy is pretty well positioned potentially in 2013 if we can put this behind us. so i think a lot of what's going on is what you would expect to see in this negotiation, very public negotiation, which is not the best way to do it. i think at some point, the president and the speaker are going to get in a room and have some very serious dialogue as this gets closer. my view is that both the administration and the republicans would prefer to put a deal together, and the outlines of that are on the table. >> you talk about the cliff or the abyss? we need to separate the two. it would be nice to have like a bridge to that $4 trillion deal that includes entitlement, tax reform. in fact, i don't know why the president isn't talking about that more with the simpson-bowles. >> the president did say that he doesn't think there's anything we can get done. >> as a bridge to that. always talking about the high end. >> actually, joe, i think the administration wants to see a deal come together here. >> for what, the fiscal cliff or the fiscal abyss? >> for both. >> for both. >> so that a down
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 9:00am EST
the company's economy. the damage from sandy was worse than first anticipated. there's 75,000 jobs lost in new jersey and new york. and the $1.4 billion economy is -- in the quarters ahead, in the fourth quart, he sees a quarter to a half point hit to national gdp directly related to the effects of sandy. talking about the national economy, the bright spots include housing and consumer spending, the negatives include business investment along with weak manufacturing. the congress and the administration must address the fiscal cliff. any plan to reduce the deficit should quote start small and then grow very substantially over time. so dudley basically agreeing with the take that sandy is a bigger event, and then you want to add on top of that dudley's concerns about the fiscal cliff coming our way. >> what does this mean for the retailers because right now we have the impact of sandy, because they're confined pretty much to november. we had this seasonally strong period for retail sales especially for the holiday season. but does that mean the kruk -- money is being spent instead on gypsum boar
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 1:00pm EST
on this debate. this is too important to our economy. it is too important for our families to not get it done. it's not acceptable to me and i don't think it is acceptable to you for just a handful of republicans in congress to hold middle class tax cuts hostage simply because they don't want tax rates on upper income folks to go up. >> then one of those congressmen who's presumably on the president's naughty list today, speaker john boehner, who came out just a few minutes after the president spoke. he talked here on capitol hill a little bit about the stalemate that he sees these talks being at this point. sort of a glum take here from the speaker of the house. obviously he's saying that these negotiations not broken down. they continue to talk but a stalemate is the way he characterizeded that. so tyler, not great news here on capitol hill, but there's another week next week. we'll get another crack at this thing. >> eamon, thanks very much. where do we stand? are we any closer to a deal? we thought we'd give you our little guide with the daily spin on our "rise above" deal meter. as you can s
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 6:00am EST
have to put the changes that happened well down the road because the economy's not ready to handle a lot of these changes in terms of cuts and things like that. but the idea that it feels like they're not going to do anything. you could wand ind up with the situation, let it all ride. we won't deal with any of it right now. >> republicans have had a good pint that tax increases are immediate and spending cuts are put off. >> when is a good time? they're talking about another four or five years of we're not going to be ready to have any type of austerity because it's still this huge debt overhang. what color is that tie? >> i don't know. red, i think. >> is it a red rutgers tie? >> not intentional. i completely forgot about the game. not having paid attention to the most important sports event of the year. >> they lost. but they played well. >> they showed up. i didn't see it, but i was happy they showed up. i have my rise above button back on because i thought i was going to have a rutgers button so which would not have allowed me to -- but now i had room for this. you got no sleep
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 6:00am EST
to inject money in a credit fashion into their economy. and we certainly think we can bring our fixed income expertise and continue to help them. >> that would make sense for cantor. ireland was the mf-will first they were in trouble, then the model for the world. what got them into trouble again, housing or real estate or something or bad banks or -- and now again they're kind of a model for everyone on how to handle it. is that basically the last five years? >> absolutely. certainly was a real estate bubble there. now there are austerity measures being put in place and they're actually following through on the austerity measures. so certainly they'll come out first and actually look pretty good. >> so where is the most business for you for cantor in ireland, what will you be doing? >> certainly it's an equity based firm. we'll bring our fixed income expertise, probably become the primary dealer there. the irish government will continue to have to have bond issuances as well as corporate debt will start to become a much bigger part of their economy. >> who else looked at this firm, do you k
CNBC
Nov 28, 2012 2:00pm EST
. manufacturing however weakened or in some cases even contracted so that dual track economy of the economy doing okay but the manufacturing sector not is a theme in this report. slice gains in residential and commercial real estate. tight inventories out there for housing. demand was higher for mortgages and auto loans and credit quality overall appeared to improve. small business loan was weaker to only moderately higher. that sector continues to be troubled. there were moderate gains in hiring with employment up in half of the 12 districts. wage and price pressure was subdude. let me get specific about the effects of hurricane sandy from the beige book. they found freight shipments were disrupted as far away as cleveland with a cloud hanging over jersey shore tourism. atlantic city casinos were mentioned specifically in there. there was concern over rebuilding the shore community and the speed with which they will be built. concern over shortages of construction equipment and rising insurance prices. finally the effects were also -- the philly said that the storm accelerated already existing w
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 2:00pm EST
get the sense, bill, that washington, d.c. has completely run out of ideas on how to grow the economy? >> i think they have. and i think economists have as well. we have been looking for the new canes for several years now. some suggest new spending, less spending. that basically has been fought out in euro land as well. to some extent, has been challenged because euro land is still in a recession. yeah, i think the world is basically in conflict between, you know, emerging and developed economies. the developed economies basically are old and basically levered ant developing economies are basically young and unlevered, without a consumpt n consumption-based economy. this clash of economies basically, mohammed al arian wrote a book three years ago, the title "when worldless collide," basically the worlds are colliding and difficult for policymakers to see how to resolve the situation. >> what san investor to make of all of this then, bill? what would you say your picks and pans to be able to still invest your money wisely? >> investors, if they are looking for growth and if they are
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 2:00pm EST
in their wallet at christmas but there is a lot of other parts to the economy. many are looking for fourth quarter gdp much lower than that revision that we had recently on third quarter gdp. >>> folks, here's your market battle. on one side china data coming in better than expected overnight. there's a little more optimism about a greek resolution. in the other corner, continued worries about what else? tax hikes and spending cuts. notice i did not call it the fiscal cliff. so ultimately which wins out? let's ask gina sanchez, director of equity and asset allocation at rubini global economics. dan, i know you've been traveling, london, san fran, all parts in between last couple of weeks. how concerned are your clients about what's going to happen on january 1st? >> it's not so much that they're concerned about what happens on january 1st because i think the bulk of our meetings have focused on the fact that this isn't really a cliff so much as a lot of people have been saying a slope. more importantly to your first question, i have been on the road for the better part of 2 1/2 months now. i don't
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 6:00am EST
just return to a normal economy like we had in 2007, those policies of george bush where we had 18.5% of our economy coming to the federal government as revenue, that would be another $419 billion. so combined, that would be $750 billion per year of additional revenue. now, president obama's proposal of punishing success, it's hard to say exactly what it will be, but somewhere around $75 billion. it's a tenth of what we get with economic growth. and the rob with punishing success, with increasing marginal tax rates or really increasing taxes, is you put at risk that growth that is ten times more effective. so again, i'm just looking at what works. and we need to calm the markets. i don't want to play brinksmanship. it's a unfortunate that the president really isn't negotiating in good faith. he's just moving the goal posts. >> although the lead story on the "wall street journal" is about how the president may be relaxing that position. he may not insist on returning to the pre-bush tax cut rates for those wealthiest 2% or whatever the situation is. that may not mean that he's not l
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 4:00am EST
to the economy. >> i'm wondering whether germany as we look at -- they're just above sort of recession territory at the moment. i'm wondering whether if they get better growth out of asia, that will offset the weakness that they're seeing in europe enough to keep them above the pencil line. >> what we've seen so far with today's numbers is exports are declining very sharp. they'll need asia and the u.s. to offset some of that demand weakness, but again, the biggest market for most is the euro zone. if the eurozone is performing badly, that will have a thok-on effect for those countries. >> there's a number of strategists saying after the u.s. has sort of led equities for most of the year, they're now saying europe is the place to be. from i think really the question you have to ask yourself is when cash, equities, credit, government bonds, where do you want to be. and equity in my mind mind is absolutely not. you need good growth numbers to justify the equity markets going up. now, i think there's a lot of investors looking at the yields on ghoechlt bonds or credits and that's motivating them to
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 4:00pm EST
the economy to go over the fiscal cliff? what kind of reaction might we see in the market if that were to materialize? >> well, if we saw the market sell off in a big way, i don't think anybody believes we're going to go over the fiscal cliff. there will be some sort of resolution. they'll come up with some tax cuts, some breaks in spending, and probably kick the can down the road on a lot of it. i love the way this market is acting. it's not selling off with all the bad news, all the bickering, all the bad words on each side. you've got to love the way that this market is holding up here. doesn't mean investors need to be carefree, but overall, it looks like the market is setting up with a lot of negative sentiment out there. looks like there's a lot of opportunity for a big run higher once we get some form of resolution. i really believe we're going to get it. >> you think by year end? >> i really do. i think they want to go home for christmas. they're not going to want to not go home for christmas. you can always count on politicians to do the right thing when all other options have
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 4:00am EST
're out with a view on your next year that doesn't sound too rosy. you talk about the economy contracting half a percent. challenges in the core countries. so walk us through how important the german vote is tomorrow and whether greece gets its aid as to the more broad brooutlook. >> the outlook is not improving. it's deteriorating for the eurozone. economic fundamentals are getting worse particularly in the countries of germany and france. these are the countries we revise down the most. in the periphery, there are signs that the recession is stabilizing. we're below the consensus. typical view is that the economy will broadly stagnate next year, we think it will continue to shrink and the ecb will continue to cap interest rates and perhaps at shall point the bond buying program will be in spain. >> and so when we talk about the sequence of events that markets are looking for the next couple of months, the main one still seems to be when spain asks for aid. pushed into the first quarter of next year now in your view? >> i think there are two windows of opportunities really. the first one
CNBC
Nov 28, 2012 6:00am EST
.s. treasury department is now stopping short of labeling the world's second biggest economy a currency manipulator. the white house is expected now to send the congress a multi-billion-dollar request on the recovery from superstorm sandy. the storm caused an estimated $71 billion in damages in new york and new jersey, and some congressional aides saying the request for funding would likely be at least $11 billion. the move comes as canada gets close to its decision on whether to approve the transaction. the energy companies say discussions with the committee are still in progress, and of course they had to file approval because they have extensive operations in the u.s. gulf of mexico. >>> "the wall street journal" reporting that virtue is emerging as the frontrunner to buy knight capital. they would possibly sell off parts of that business. finally, we can't get away from the story of twinkies. the bakers union of hostess brands wants a bankruptcy judge to appoint a chapter 11 trustee to ensure an orderly winddown. the union is saying it objects the allowing incumbent management to su
CNBC
Nov 28, 2012 4:00pm EST
yet, with whispers of possibly the fed stimulating the economy even further, and with economic data pouring in almost daily that suggests we're still sputtering along? >> well, i tend to think 2013s going to be a great year. i'm not just looking at housing and employment. i'm looking at the architectural building index. there's stuff in the draw room. they're ready to bid out this winter and break ground in the spring. the republicans know that. the democrats know that. i would agree with rick. right now it's hard to imagine they can come up with something. we know they can. we know the democrats can say, okay, we'll give you something on means testing entitlements and we'll move the social security age up. republicans will say, we'll get rid of second mortgage deductions. they can do it. i don't think they really want to do it yet. so we just sit here sort of up 100, down 100. you know, just stand on the sidelines and wait until they figure it out. >> ryan, how are you allocating capital as we watch these gyrations on a daily basis because of comments out of capitol hill? >> the bo
CNBC
Dec 3, 2012 3:00pm EST
this was for the economy. this is a multiyear low reading in the manufacturing numbers. we haven't seen a number like this since 2009. we haven't seen an employment index number like this since september of 2009, the last time it was at this level, unemployment, 9.8%. we have a nonfarm payrolls number coming out on friday. you'll be lucky to see a positive number in front of that. i don't see how the market overcomes that kind of thing. independent of all this jibber jabber over the fiscal cliff, the economy is in really rough shape now. >> it is. we're seeing businesses cut back, getting ready for the eventuality they see coming, no deal by december 31st this worsening. sam, how do you want to be invested in 2013? where is the growth in the economy coming from, if anywhere? >> i think the growth is coming from an improvement in the housing sector. i think we are starting to see a slowdown in the job loss from the government sector. so, i think we're going to be seeing a better than half speed recovery. so, you do want to be taking a balanced approach. we do favor the consumer discretionary at this p
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 5:00pm EST
of the american economy. that's part of a balanced framework. that's definitely some progress. what we need to have them acknowledge is that the rates go up and if they're willing to accept that and commit to that as an agreement, then we think we can do something really good for the economy. >> what you have here is really the administration laying out the parameters of getting a deal done. it's going to be tax hikes on the wealthiest 2% going back to the bush tax cuts, although there was a little play in the idea. it didn't have to be 39.6%. he didn't say that had to happen, but he says he thinks that's the best way for a deal to get done to raise the money they need. and a deal on the debt ceiling. so, guys, i'm not sure where we are on this deal. i know the market looks a little bit upbeat. geithner says he thinks the deal looks like it will get done. it sounds like the two sides are pretty far a park. >> it sounds like he's implying for the republicans to make the move and acknowledge that the taxes will go higher. is that what you heard from the conversation? >> absolutely. i don't th
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 9:00am EST
ceo warns the cliff must get stalled or the economy could be stifled well into 2014. >>> even more dividends pushed into 2012. coach, american eagle moving up and oracle will play out three-quarters of dividends this year. >>> more strength in housing this morning. toll brothers earnings top expectations. we'll begin with the fiscal cliff. governors are set to meet today with the president and congressional leaders. governors are concerned about the impact of deficit reduction measures on their state budgebu. the latest gop offer would overhaul the tax code, raise $800 billion in new revenue but seek $600 billion in health savings, net savings add up to about $2.2 trillion over ten years. boehner called the white house's original offer la la land and it does appear that even though at one point bowles endorsed a blueprint like this, he's trying to distance himself from it right now. >> the president got re-elected. he's claiming he got re-elected in part because he wants to tax that 2%. he cannot go back on that. in the meantime, congress most of the republicans signed the grover n
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 9:00am EST
slowed their economy too much and it's time to put more gasoline on it. they actually have the ability to do that. the communist party is very well run. ceo is terrific. they may declare a special dividend. >> the ceo is no andrew mason. >> no. if the ceo were to leave, i don't know if the stock would pop. >> bob pisani is on the floor watching what's moving on this friday. good morning, bob. >> we opened flat by in large. i have to say the commentary this morning, the mood is gloomier than i have seen recently. there's been a lot of hope that a deal could be reached here. how's this for gloom? 2013 is going to be tough. fiscal cliff or not. how's this one? we lose either way. you get a fiscal cliff deal, you'll have tax increases and spending cuts. they'll cut 1%, 1.5% off gdp. that's not good for stock market in 2013. you don't get a deal, you get mandatory spending cuts that will be worse. meantime, there are shorter term worries. how about getting through today? how do you go long or short here today when over the weekend anybody -- i mean almost anybody, can appear on a sunday tal
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 5:00pm EST
. >> and the derivative trade could be consumers. >> i think this is the most pullish thing for the entire u.s. economy and global economy. get the government out of the way. get these guys out of the way. let prices clear. if you take gas prices down and food prices down this is very bullish for a lot of people. you could look at the other side of this. big cap nike, yum, starbucks. there are big names that look relatively good. >> and back to just the commodities and the impact. iron ore has outperformed the underlying stock prices. if you are looking at a place for next year. you have tech resources, php up 5% to 10% since september. >> if they hold. iron ore prices are choppy and uneven. >>> coming up next the best play for 2013. we are looking beyond america's borders to find top returns for your money. we take on the good, the bad and the ugly. much more straight ahead. with the spark cash card from capital one, olaf gets great rewards for his small business! pizza! [ garth ] olaf's small business earns 2% cash back on every purchase, every day! helium delivery. put it on my spark card! [ pop! ]
CNBC
Nov 28, 2012 11:00pm EST
the economy is not doing so hot and the underlying economy is not doing so hot. it helps their customers become more efficient. though use this proprietary technology and collect data from satellites, laser, and other met methods and they have applications for pacific software designed to tell their customers what they need to do to improve the efficiency of their workers out in the field. especially at construction sites and infrastructure builds and they work along many dimensions. they can cut labor costs, pesticide costs, or fuel costs. they can help them imcustomer service. at the end of the day it comes down to other companies finding new ways to squeeze more money out of their businesses and that's the kind of pitch that never goes out of style. certainly not one the old tremble could have offered. i'll give you an idea. tremble has joibt technology with -- anything from software solutions and machine control technologies. this gives the company a tremendous outsource international sales force. it looks likes tremble has become the real deal. they recently had a conference for the
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 11:00pm EST
lift at all. so what do we do? people are worried the economy is slowing because of the cliff. so what do we do? is it game over for equities should i take my -- hall of fame today and just go home? no, no, no. let me first say absolutely not. we simply have to get eveninger to a cliff resolution or to a situation where no one expects resolution. going with the latter, hey, that is new. let me walk you through here. today last week. last week, genuine hope a deal would get done. today, last week. if you recall, we heard from a host of executives. they met with the president. came out, the mic in their faces. they felt like compromise was in the air. compromise was real, imminent. even heard from the always skeptical ceo of goldman sachs. far apart. it could be hammered out without real difficulty if it were in the private sector. behind the scene, from skeptical to more positive. when i heard those execs touch base with them and spoke with them on both sides of the aisle i thought there might be more common ground, but in the last 72 hours many came to the conclusion, partly me because
CNBC
Nov 28, 2012 12:00pm EST
economy, it would be good for our children's future. i believe that both parties can agree on a framework that does that in the coming weeks. in fact, my hope is to get this done before christmas. but the place where we already have, in theory at least, complete agreement right now, is on middle-class taxes. as i've said before, we have two choices. if congress does nothing, every family in america will see their taxes automatically go up at the beginning of next year, starting january 1st, every family in america will see their taxes go up. are a typical middle-class family of four would so its income taxes go up by $2200. $2200 out of people's pockets. that means less money for buying groceries, less money for filling prescriptions, less money for buying diapers. it means a tougher choice between paying the rent and paying tuition and middle-class families can't afford that. by the way, businesses can't afford it, either. yesterday i sat down with small business owners who stressed this point, that economists predict if taxes go up on the middle class next week consumers will spend near
CNBC
Nov 29, 2012 12:00pm EST
-- coordinated global monetary easing policy from the central banks, how you're going to have a worser economy next year and therefore lower profits. >> joe? or josh? >> hi, tony. josh brown. i'm just curious, if you took a look at that gdp third quarter revision from this morning, one of the things i think jumped out most is that really all of the improvement comes as a result of both federal spending and then the other thing -- then the other thing that people don't want to see which is a lot of inventory restocking which i understand is seasonal. but now that's on the backs of the consumers, actually, taking those products out of stores to their homes. are we really going to be able to say that that was a good upward revision? even though the number went up? >> no. frankly, the market would have already priced that in after they released the number. we're in what we're calling a fundamental sweet spot. the last thing investors should want are great economic data series. very low unemployment. because with that comes tighter monetary policy. historically the market moves up when there's mone
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 1:00pm EST
. we're going to talk about the fiscal cliff. if we go over it, will it really destroy the u.s. economy? we'll show you some stats to make you go -- hmm. we'll talk more about apple's slide, should microsoft's ceo steve ballmer get the boot if the surface fails. and we will introduce to you quite possibly the world's dumbest demolition crew. it involves a multi-million dollar bore chateau and really bad bulldozing. >> yikes. see you at 1:00, brian. thank you. >>> listen up wall street recruiters, a recent rash of college cheating scandals has shown academic dishonesty is unfortunately a very big problem on campus today. who are the worst offenders? tonight's premier of "faking the grade -- classroom cheaters," we'll tell you. they'll find out which students are most likely to cut corners in the battle to gain an edge. >> reporter: don mccabe and his canadian colleague collaborate on research. mccabe says in the u.s. business students cheat the most. engineering students are often near the top of the list. and so are communications and journalism students. women studied at one university
CNBC
Dec 5, 2012 6:00pm EST
was happening down there. at the moment, we can barely focus on anything but washington. the whole u.s. economy, your entire portfolio is hostage to two warring parties, demonstrating a level of partisanship that's been measured to being the worst since 1860, the origins of the civil war. let's hope it doesn't take out that particular benchmark. we're witnessing the titanic struggle between those who are willing to rise above politics, and compromise to cut spending and increase taxes. yes, that's the actual compromise radical middle position as dave cote from honeywell says, and those who refuse to accept entitlement cuts. given that the president's saying he campaigned and won on a platform of higher taxes for the wealthy and the republicans say they were elected because they pledged to behind the scenes power broker grover norquist they would never raise taxes, it certainly seems that the impasse cannot be solved and we got to -- go over the cliff. not only do the hard liners refuse to rise above partisanship in order to avoid a government man-dated recession, which is what it's amounted to
CNBC
Nov 30, 2012 2:00pm EST
's riding on this debate. this is too important to our economy, it's too important for our families to not get it done and it is not acceptable to me and i don't think it is acceptable to you for just a handful of republicans in congress to hold middle class tax cuts hostage simply because they don't want tax rates on upper income folks to go up. >> reporter: now just minutes after that, speaker of the house, john boehner, the republican leader here on the house side of the capitol, took to the podium as sort of a downbeat speaker boehner saying that we are at an impasse here in washington in these negotiations. >> no, there's a stalemate. let's not kid ourselves. i'm not trying to make this more difficult. if you've watched me over the last three weeks, i've been very guarded in what i have to say because i don't want to make it harder for me or the president. >> reporter: so, brian, as you can tell, they're talking about a stalemate here in washington but the very fact that mcconnell is floating new ideas in the "wall street journal" just within the past couple of minutes is an in
CNBC
Nov 28, 2012 9:00am EST
? >> it's a very bifurcated economy today with the consumer. you have high end consumers that are still feeling pretty good but in very basic every day needs like food as well as basic services, et cetera, people no matter what economic strata they're in, they are trying to save on those basics. >> explains a lot about where we are. >> took my breath away. what he's saying is there's a huge percentage of people trying to pay for dinner and dinner is tough to come by and you forget about that on a fiscal cliff discussion that will be even more difficult for people to pay for dinner and he did this acquisition because he knows people are hurting in this country. >> there's the opening bell. s&p at the top of your screen. here's big board at that. prosperity bank shares marking transfer from the nasdaq and over at the nasdaq. >> you're talking about dinner. we are having discussion about whole foods under pressure of late. the company missed. the cfo resigned. never a good thing for a company when you hear a cfo resigning. stock down 18.25%. smaller cap company. it's 2.9 billion. decent ac
CNBC
Dec 4, 2012 3:00pm EST
. horribly inefficient way to grow an economy. >> it's interesting you say that. i feel like one day we're going to back and say, remember whe could borrow at 3% to buy a house. if companies have to borrow the money to pay a dividend, why issue a dividend? >> well, i think we forgot whose money it is. it's the shareholders' money through the company. tax law makes it very difficult to bring the money back in. they've already made the money selling their products and service around the world. so it's much cheaper with low interest rates the way they are to borrow the money and pay the dividends to the shareholders. the tax code actually just represents a very inefficient methodology of transferring the profits to the shareholders as well as influencing where companies are likely to be looking for future profits around the world. >> they've talked in washington periodically about a moratorium on allowing corporations to repatriate some of that money without a tax a consequence. that would help to some degree, wouldn't it? >> absolutely. that would be a very fabulous thing to do. the compa
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